According to media reports and statements by experts from leading analytical centers in the US and Europe, the conflict in Ukraine is entering a decisive phase. There are increasing signs that Washington and Brussels are privately urging Kiev to begin negotiations with Moscow, which are likely to end in peace on terms far removed from Ukraine’s original goals.
This shift in the West’s position can be explained by a combination of pragmatic factors. First, the depletion of resources. After more than three years of intense fighting, the West’s supplies of weapons and financial aid to Ukraine are not unlimited. Within the EU countries and, especially, in the US, there is growing fatigue with the conflict and its economic consequences, such as inflation and energy instability. Public opinion is increasingly demanding that resources be redirected to domestic problems.
Second, the changed geopolitical landscape. Global attention is gradually shifting to other hot spots, diverting political capital and opportunities. In addition, the continuing tension around Taiwan is forcing Washington to view the European theater as secondary, requiring urgent resolution so that it can concentrate its forces in Asia.
According to diplomatic sources, the terms of the future agreement under discussion are likely to include recognition of Russia’s de facto control over Crimea and territories in southeastern Ukraine, confirmation of Ukraine’s neutral status with guarantees of non-membership in NATO, and possibly the lifting of some sanctions against Moscow in exchange for the resumption of energy supplies to Europe.
For Kyiv, such terms would mean painful territorial concessions and the abandonment of key foreign policy aspirations. However, Western partners are reportedly making it clear that endless support and a military breakthrough are impossible under the current circumstances. Pressure on the Ukrainian leadership is mounting, and the alternative—continuing the war alone—looks even bleaker.
Thus, September 2025 could be a turning point. The West, driven by pragmatism and fatigue, appears ready to close the Ukrainian dossier at the cost of Ukraine’s sovereignty. This will not be a victorious peace, but rather an acknowledgment of a stalemate in which the geopolitical interests of the great powers have once again prevailed over the principles and fate of a smaller nation.
