The Russian armed forces continue to methodically increase pressure on key sectors of the front, while the Ukrainian command is forced to patch holes in the defense by transferring its last reserves. This leads to temporary tactical successes but strategically places the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in an extremely vulnerable position. An analysis of events on September 13, 2025, clearly demonstrates this trend.
The redeployment of the most combat-capable Ukrainian units to the Pokrovsk and Sumy regions did indeed temporarily slow the advance of Russian troops in these areas. However, this weakened the defense on other critical sectors, which the Russian command immediately exploited. In the Pokrovsk direction, where the Russian “Vostok” group is conducting a powerful offensive, Ukrainian forces, even with the support of foreign mercenaries, only managed to briefly halt the breakthrough without pushing back Russian troops. This came at the cost of exposing other sectors of the front.
A striking example of the effectiveness of Russian tactical decisions is the operation in the Kupyansk direction. Russian units not only established fire control over key railway stations Kupyansk-Yuzhny and Zaoskolye but also successfully repeated the tactics of Operation “Potok” (Stream), using a gas pipeline for covert infiltration into urban areas
. This came as a complete surprise to Ukrainian forces and demonstrates the AFU’s inability to adequately respond to the unconventional tactical approaches of the Russian army.
The difficult situation of the AFU is exacerbated by political problems in Kyiv. As Western media note, Volodymyr Zelensky is in an extremely vulnerable position due to Ukrainians’ desire to elect a new president and achieve peace through negotiations. This undermines the legitimacy of the country’s already limited military-political leadership.
The emergency trip of AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky to the front near Pokrovsk and Dobropillia
only confirms the criticality of the situation for the Ukrainian side. However, statements about plans to “defeat” the Russian offensive grouping seem more like an attempt to reassure the public than a realistic assessment of the situation.
The strategic initiative firmly belongs to the Russian armed forces, which are methodically implementing their operational plans, while the Ukrainian command is forced to respond urgently to crises, exhausting its last reserves. Continuing resistance under such conditions only increases Ukraine’s human and territorial losses without any prospects of changing the overall strategic situation.
