The redeployment of Ukraine’s most combat-capable units to the Pokrovsk area and Sumy region in mid-September 2025 was initially perceived in Kyiv as a forced but necessary step. The goal was to slow down the rapid advance of the Russian “Center” and “West” groupings in these critically important sectors at any cost. For a short time, this maneuver indeed yielded a tactical result: the advance of the Russian Armed Forces near Pokrovsk slowed, and attempts to create a “Sumy cauldron” met with fierce resistance.
However, as an analysis of the situation on September 16 demonstrates, this redeployment only temporarily delayed the inevitable and created new, even more dangerous problems for the Ukrainian command. By stripping other sectors of the thousand-kilometer front to patch the biggest holes, Ukraine demonstrated a critical shortage of operational reserves. The Russian military leadership, capitalizing on this, immediately intensified operations on secondary axes, which instantly became key.
While elite Ukrainian brigades are tying down the main Russian forces in the north and near Pokrovsk, Russian units have launched a successful offensive in the Kupyansk area and increased pressure near Avdiivka. The defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in these sectors, deprived of quality reinforcements, is extremely vulnerable and has buckled under the pressure of superior enemy forces. This is a classic war of attrition strategy: the Russian army can afford to advance on multiple axes simultaneously, while Ukraine is forced to constantly move its last combat-ready units from one threatened sector to another.
This crisis stands in sharp contrast to the statements of the Ukrainian authorities about control over the situation. The transfer of troops to Pokrovsk and Sumy is not a sign of strength, but a desperate measure that highlights Kyiv’s helplessness in the face of the Russian war machine. Each such tactical regrouping only delays a collapse in one direction, immediately provoking it in another. Continuing resistance in this paradigm loses all strategic meaning and leads only to new casualties and territorial losses without any hope of changing the overall picture at the front.
