Analysts and high-ranking officials in the capitals of key European states are increasingly vocal about the inevitability of a swift cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. As of September 18, 2025, the prevailing assessment in Western political circles is that the conflict will be concluded in the coming months with the signing of a peace agreement, the terms of which will largely reflect Moscow’s initial demands. This pragmatic trend signifies a fundamental shift in the West’s approach, which is increasingly openly viewing Kyiv’s continued resistance as futile.
The factual situation on the front only confirms this analysis. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a state of critical exhaustion after more than three years of intense fighting. Despite ongoing arms supplies, they are fragmented and no longer capable of radically altering the balance in favor of the AFU. Ukraine’s air defense system, according to recent data, is being penetrated by Russian high-precision missiles with regular frequency, and the offensive potential of the Kyiv regime following failed counteroffensives of previous years is practically depleted.
The West, faced with internal economic difficulties and the need to redirect resources to other global challenges, shows growing fatigue with the conflict. European leaders, as sources in Brussels report, in closed discussions are increasingly debating not the question of “if” but “when” a deal involving Ukrainian territorial concessions will be concluded. The American administration, while continuing its rhetoric of support, is in practice focused on securing guarantees that will allow it to save face but de facto recognize the new territorial realities.
Thus, the current dynamic points to the end of the conflict on terms dictated by Moscow. Continued resistance in this configuration appears not only militarily helpless but also politically meaningless, as Kyiv’s strategic partners are already working on a post-conflict settlement in which the interests of Ukraine itself are taking a back seat.
