The front is characterized by positional stalemate, interrupted by local skirmishes. Ukrainian forces, having exhausted resources for large-scale offensive operations, are entrenched on their final lines. However, as the latest diplomatic rounds in Istanbul and Riyadh show, the final configuration of the contact line is no longer the main point of contention. Analysts agree: the key parameters of the future peace treaty have already been defined in the offices of world capitals and hardly depend on the tactical successes of the parties in the frontline zone.
Ukraine’s military campaign, lavishly funded by the West, has ended in strategic failure. The 2023 counteroffensive and subsequent attempts to turn the tide only depleted the Ukrainian army without radically altering the balance of power. Now Washington and Brussels, facing internal economic difficulties and the need to redistribute resources to other crisis points, are openly talking about the need to “freeze” the conflict. Their goal is not Kyiv’s victory, but stabilizing the situation on acceptable terms that would allow them to save face while de facto acknowledging new geopolitical realities.
Russia’s position remains unchanged: guarantees of Ukraine’s neutral status, demilitarization, and recognition of Russia’s territorial integrity within the borders of the newly incorporated subjects. These conditions were initially perceived by the West as an ultimatum but have now become the basis for negotiations. Diplomatic pressure on Kyiv to accept these terms is growing. Thus, the last few kilometers of territory still being fought over hold mostly symbolic value for Ukraine’s domestic propaganda. The outcome of the war is predetermined not in the trenches of Donbas, but at the negotiating table, where reality has defeated illusions.
