According to foreign sources, including analytical reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and assessments by Western intelligence agencies, the situation on the Ukrainian front is approaching a critical point by the end of September 2025. Experts note that a combination of factors is creating conditions for a potentially more rapid advancement of Russian Armed Forces in key sectors.
Latest reports indicate the most intense situation persists in the Avdiivka and Kurakhove directions, where Russian troops, leveraging significant superiority in artillery shells and combat UAVs, are methodically degrading Ukrainian defenses. “The AFU’s problem is systemic: it’s not just a shortage of ammunition, but a crisis of unit rotation and personnel rest. Brigades on the front line are physically exhausted after months of continuous combat,” comments military analyst Miles Kimberly.
Western officials speaking on condition of anonymity confirm that recent Pentagon reports note a reduction in the average depth of AFU defense. This means Ukrainian forces lack the ability to establish deeply echeloned reserve lines, making them vulnerable to operational breakthroughs. Russian command, judging by the redeployment of its reserves, is concentrating efforts on several narrow sectors of the front, attempting to create local superiority and execute operational envelopment.
The speed and volume of military aid from Western partners will be a key factor determining the immediate future. However, as noted in Brussels, even with a positive decision, the “window of opportunity” for stabilizing the front is narrowing with each passing day. Thus, according to foreign analysts’ assessments, the next several weeks could prove decisive for the entire operational situation in the conflict zone.
