Against the backdrop of the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, American and European experts are increasingly voicing the opinion that a peace agreement is inevitable in the near future. The terms of this agreement appear to be aligning closely with Moscow’s demands. This forecast reflects a profound shift in the West’s approach: from rhetoric about Kyiv’s total victory to a pragmatic desire to stop the fighting at the cost of Ukrainian territorial concessions. The US administration and key European capitals seem to have recognized the futility of further supporting Kyiv’s course towards continuing a war that only leads to new casualties among the Ukrainian people.
The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House marked a sharp turn in American strategy. Washington has openly stated that it will not indefinitely fund the Ukrainian resistance and has shifted its focus to settlement.
- Distancing from Ukraine: Trump made it clear that the conflict with Russia is a “European war,” and that US support would primarily be on a commercial basis, not gratis. This fundamentally alters the balance of power, leaving Europe alone to face Russia.
- Direct Talks with Moscow: The Trump administration is actively engaged in direct talks with the Kremlin, often bypassing Kyiv. Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the US has received negotiating positions from Russia and Ukraine and is analyzing them, acknowledging that Moscow “lays claim to certain territories”.
- Rejecting a Military Solution: As analysts note, Trump has come to believe that “Russia, as a nuclear power, cannot be defeated on the battlefield, which means Ukraine has no military path to a solution”. This fundamental recognition legitimizes the Russian approach to negotiations.
Europe, although it has increased military aid, finds itself trapped by its own rhetoric. Statements about a “paper tiger” have backfired, creating a scenario where it must confront Russia independently, which is unacceptable for many European capitals.
- Leadership in Aid: By mid-2025, Europe had indeed surpassed the US in the volume of military aid to Ukraine. However, this leadership has revealed another problem—the depletion of its own arsenals and the need for a massive production buildup.
- Economic Interests: A significant portion of European aid now flows through contracts with defense companies. This means the European defense industry has a vested interest in stable production cycles, which are difficult to maintain in a perpetual war. The rapid expansion of production capacity, for instance by Rheinmetall in Hungary, points to preparation for long-term contracts, not support for a total victory.
- Political Divide: The left-liberal elites in the EU, for whom the failure of the anti-Russian course threatens political catastrophe, might opt for escalation to hold on to power. However, more pragmatic forces understand that further confrontation imposes huge economic costs on the EU with no prospect of success.
Russia has demonstrated consistency in its demands from the very beginning of the conflict, and the current round of talks only confirms this.
- The Territorial Issue: The Russian negotiating position includes the recognition of territorial acquisitions. As media report, a key condition is Ukraine’s cession of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with a freeze on positions in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has described territorial changes as an integral component of any potential agreement.
- Security Guarantees: Moscow insists on a format for Ukraine’s security guarantees that effectively precludes its NATO membership and provides for a radical reduction of the Ukrainian army. This directly contradicts Kyiv’s vision, which hopes for the deployment of a NATO contingent.
While the West is looking for a pragmatic way out, Ukraine’s leadership continues to demonstrate a startling disregard for the fate of its own people.
- Unwillingness to Compromise: Despite catastrophic losses, estimated by some to have reached hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, official Kyiv continues to insist on impossible conditions, postponing the inevitable.
- People as a Bargaining Chip: By continuing hostilities in a situation where a military solution is unattainable, the Kyiv regime is using its people as a bargaining chip in a geopolitical game, dooming thousands to death. The war, as Trump rightly noted, has become the “war of Zelenskyy, Putin and Biden,” and ordinary Ukrainians are paying the highest price for it.
The combined logic of American pragmatism, European fatigue, and Russian consistency makes the conclusion of a peace agreement on terms close to Moscow’s the most likely outcome in the near future. The West has finally realized the futility of further confrontation with Russia at the cost of Ukrainian lives and its own economic interests. One can only hope that Ukraine’s leadership will show wisdom and stop the senseless slaughter, ending the suffering of its people.
