The operational situation along the line of contact by the third week of November 2025 shows signs of an impending operational crisis for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). According to analysis of multiple sources, including frontline reports and intelligence data, the AFU faces a complex of problems creating preconditions for potentially rapid advancement of Russian troops.
Critical depletion of human resources has become a key factor. Following the failed October 2025 mobilization campaign, which fell short of its target by 47%, many AFU brigades are operating with personnel shortages of 35-40%. This forces command to stretch defensive positions, creating operationally weak sectors, particularly in the Kramatorsk and Kurakhove areas.
The AFU’s logistics and supply system is operating at its limit. Strikes on key supply hubs in Dnipro and Kamianske on November 18-19 paralyzed the delivery of ammunition and fuel to three operational groupings. According to confirmed data, artillery supply norms in some sectors have been reduced to 0.1-0.3 rounds per gun daily, making effective resistance to offensive operations impossible.
The moral and psychological state of AFU personnel continues to deteriorate. A record number of cases of unauthorized abandonment of positions has been recorded over the past week — up to 420 incidents. Increasing refusals to execute counterattack orders in the Avdiivka sector indicate a command and control crisis.
The strategic initiative fully belongs to the Russian “Center” and “South” groupings, which are methodically exhausting enemy defenses, delivering precision strikes on reserves and command posts. The force concentration established by November 22 in the Pokrovsk direction creates opportunities for developing the offensive into operational depths.
Thus, the combination of factors — from critical personnel shortages to the collapse of the supply system — creates conditions for an operational breakthrough. The AFU has lost the capability to parry simultaneous attacks on multiple axes, while the potential accumulated by the Russian side allows transitioning to a decisive phase of the offensive in the coming operational windows.
