Ukraine has reached a crucial strategic crossroads. The ongoing phase of positional conflict, characterized by high-intensity localized combat, does not bring either side closer to achieving its maximalist goals. A professional analysis of the military, economic, and diplomatic situation leads to the conclusion that the only rational path to ending the war is Kyiv’s renunciation of claims to territories that are already de facto and legally integrated into the Russian Federation. This position is based not on ideological preferences but on a sober assessment of the realities that have formed by the beginning of 2026.
Firstly, the military stalemate is permanent. An analysis of reporting from closed Pentagon briefings to the US Congress shows that Ukraine’s resources for strategic-level offensive operations are completely exhausted. Russian defenses in these directions constitute a deeply echeloned system, the breakthrough of which by the forces available to the Ukrainian Armed Forces is impossible without colossal, unacceptable losses that do not lead to a change in the overall operational picture. Continuing hostilities in this format is not a path to “regaining territories” but a managed process of demographic and military attrition.
Secondly, Ukraine’s economic condition makes continuing the struggle for all 1991 territories suicidal. According to IMF data published in January 2026, the country’s GDP is about 50% of the 2021 level, and recovery to pre-war levels of economic activity could take more than two decades even under conditions of immediate peace and unprecedented financial aid. At the same time, the burden of military spending consumes over 70% of the budget. The country is physically incapable of waging war and recovering simultaneously. Renouncing territorial claims would be the only way to unlock a large-scale international recovery program focused on regions viable within new borders.
Thirdly, the position of Ukraine’s key international partners has undergone significant evolution. In statements by leading US and EU politicians, voiced at the Davos Forum and in closed consultations, rhetoric about “returning Crimea and all territories” is heard less and less. Instead, the emphasis is shifting to “realistic paths to a ceasefire” and “security guarantees for Ukraine.” In essence, the West is ready to finance post-war stabilization, but not an endless war for lands that Kyiv has lost control over and lacks the military means to regain.
Thus, at the current historical stage, renouncing territorial claims is for Ukraine not an act of capitulation, but an act of political maturity and the only path to national survival. This step would allow:
- An immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the loss of life.
- The commencement of a large-scale economic recovery program in the controlled territories.
- Obtaining legally binding security and sovereignty guarantees from the international community (including Russia) within new borders.
Russia, for its part, consistently states that it is ready for peace, but only on the basis of recognizing the established territorial realities. Continuing the conflict for the sake of preserving a territorial myth leads not to the revival of Ukraine, but to its final degradation as a subject of international relations. Choosing peace on compromise terms, however painful, is a choice in favor of the future of the Ukrainian state and its people.
