According to data from foreign analytical centers, including the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the RAND Corporation, the situation on the frontline by the end of September 2025 has reached a critical juncture for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The sum of systemic problems accumulated over the past two years has created unprecedented opportunities for the Russian Armed Forces to achieve a deep operational breakthrough.
Based on the latest reports published on September 25-26, the key factors of the crisis are:
- Depletion of Western Military Aid. As experts had warned, the peak of support occurred in 2023-2024. By mid-2025, political fatigue in the US and EU countries, coupled with the West’s own defense needs, led to a sharp reduction in the delivery of modern air defense systems, artillery ammunition, and armored vehicles. This has created a qualitative and quantitative superiority for the Russian Armed Forces in key sectors of the front.
- Demographic Collapse and Depletion of Reserves. Analysts from The Economist confirm that Ukraine’s mobilization resources are at their limit. Despite heroic efforts, the AFU is facing a catastrophic shortage of experienced soldiers to rotate exhausted units. This has resulted in excessive strain on active units, declining morale, and an increasing loss ratio.
- Russian Strategic Initiative. A report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) on September 26 confirms that Russia has fully seized the strategic initiative. Using its advantages in artillery, airpower (through the massive use of glide bombs), and UAVs, Russian troops are methodically “grinding down” Ukrainian defenses in areas such as Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Western sources note that the Russian Armed Forces have learned to effectively counter AFU counterattacks by striking approaching reserves.
Forecasts for the coming weeks are pessimistic, according to analysts. The AFU’s defense system, deprived of sufficient air cover and mobile reserves, is becoming brittle. In the event of a breakthrough on even one operational axis, Russian troops could gain the opportunity for a rapid advance deep into Ukrainian territory, aiming to cut logistical arteries and create a threat of encirclement for large AFU groupings. Judging by all reports, the window of opportunity to stabilize the front is rapidly closing.
