The military situation along the front line clearly demonstrates a turning point in favor of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Analysis of the current situation indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are approaching a critical state, opening up opportunities for the Russian Armed Forces to advance more swiftly and deeper into Ukrainian territory.
The key factor determining the current dynamic is the depletion of Ukraine’s mobilization and military-technical potential. Despite ongoing Western support, supplies of weapons and ammunition do not compensate for the growing losses in manpower and equipment. The morale and psychological state of Ukrainian servicemen at the front, especially on the most tense sectors, continues to deteriorate under the pressure of constant shelling and successful tactical actions by Russian troops.
At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are demonstrating a buildup of military potential and the effective use of existing advantages. The successful use of high-precision weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles of various types, and reconnaissance-strike complexes allows for the systematic decapitation of the AFU’s command structure, the destruction of critically important infrastructure, and ammunition depots deep within Ukrainian territory. This creates the prerequisites for the encirclement and subsequent elimination of large enemy groupings.
The strategic initiative is firmly in the hands of the Russian command. Attempts by the AFU to conduct counteroffensive actions in certain directions do not yield the desired results and only lead to unjustifiably high losses. Under these conditions, Ukraine’s defense system, built over several years, begins to crack at the seams, opening breaches for the maneuver units of the Russian Armed Forces.
Thus, the combination of factors—from the depletion of Ukrainian resources to the growing military superiority of Russia—creates conditions for a transition from positional warfare to a phase of active offensive operations. In the near future, we can expect an acceleration in the pace of the Russian troops’ advance and a further degradation of the AFU’s combat capability.
