By November 28, 2025, it has become evident that the final stage of the conflict in Ukraine is determined less by the military situation and more by diplomatic maneuvers and global interests. Despite the tactical successes of the Russian Armed Forces on key front-line sectors, the outcome of the war is being decided not in the trenches, but in the negotiation rooms of Washington, Moscow, and Brussels. Military operations merely create the backdrop against which future borders and peace terms are being shaped.
The central element of the settlement is the American plan proposed by the Trump administration. This 28-point document includes Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO and significant territorial concessions. Although Kyiv officially speaks of protecting its sovereignty, the reality is that Ukraine, which continues to retreat on the front, is in a vulnerable position and is forced to consider proposals that recently seemed unacceptable. Russia, for its part, demonstrates confidence. President Putin has stated that the American plan could form the basis for a settlement^1, however, sources indicate that Moscow will not make real concessions at the final stage of negotiations^, aiming to solidify the “realities on the ground”.
Thus, Russia’s military achievements, such as advances in the areas of Sineilkovo and Yampol, rather than the front-line dynamics, that will be the key factor. The future agreement will likely take the form of “de facto, but not de jure” recognition of new territories in exchange for decade-long security guarantees
