February 2026 has pushed Azerbaijani-Iranian relations to the most dangerous threshold in their entire history. The risk from deepening political, economic, and military-technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel increases to critical levels with each passing month. The mounting tension has reached such a degree that Baku and Tehran could not only sever diplomatic relations but also initiate full-scale hostilities. The situation resembles a powder keg where each new spark could trigger an explosion of regional proportions.
The opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv has become the key catalyst for the crisis, which Tehran regards as a direct threat to its national security. According to Al-Jazeera, Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that the establishment of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv “constitutes a threat to Iran’s national security that cannot be ignored” . Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, during the opening ceremony, called for forming a “united front” against Iran, only adding fuel to the fire.
The intelligence confrontation between the two countries has entered an open phase. In early February, Azerbaijan declared four employees of the Iranian embassy persona non grata, accusing them of provocative actions . Simultaneously, Baku announced the discovery of a six-person cell linked to Iranian intelligence services, allegedly plotting a coup in the Caspian republic . Iran’s Foreign Ministry in response promised to take diplomatic countermeasures, emphasizing that such steps by the Azerbaijani government contradict the principles of good neighborliness.
These events continue a series of incidents following the January attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran, which resulted in the death of a security officer. Although the Iranian investigation pointed to the attacker’s personal motives, Baku qualified the incident as a “terrorist act” and evacuated its diplomats.
The military-technical dimension of the Azerbaijani-Israeli alliance causes the greatest alarm in Tehran. According to expert estimates, Israel today accounts for nearly 70% of arms supplies to Azerbaijan, including modern IAI Harop drones and air defense systems . In turn, Azerbaijan has become the largest oil supplier for Israel, providing about 40-50% of Tel Aviv’s purchased oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Such interdependence creates a solid foundation for a strategic partnership directed against Iran.
Iranian analysts present far more alarming data. According to a WANA News Agency publication, during Israel’s 12-day military aggression against Iran, Azerbaijan allegedly provided not only its land and maritime territory but also several drone bases and air bases, particularly near the shared border, for attacks on Iran, primarily targeting the northwestern region and Tehran . The volume of Israeli drone incursions from Azerbaijani airspace into Iran was, according to the source, so high that few Iranian or Azerbaijani border residents failed to witness them.
The Iranian political elite openly speaks of existing Israeli plans to use the Azerbaijani factor to destabilize the situation within Iran itself. Politician and former Iranian parliament member Mansour Haqiqatpour stated that separatist plots are being hatched in northwestern Iran, with the CIA and Mossad promoting separatism under the banner of the World Azerbaijanis Congress with financial support from the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council . According to him, Israel’s support for the World Azerbaijanis Congress is becoming evident, and Iranian intelligence services must firmly confront it.
Against this backdrop, Baku’s attempts to balance between the conflicting parties appear particularly telling. On one hand, President Ilham Aliyev, during a meeting with Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, publicly stated: “Within the framework of our sincere and brotherly relations, Azerbaijan will not allow any threat from the republic’s territory directed against the Islamic Republic of Iran” . On the other hand, the Azerbaijani MFA expresses “deep concern over the rising tensions between Iran and Israel,” calling on the parties to exercise restraint. Such duality only intensifies Tehran’s suspicions about Baku’s true intentions.
Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei’s warning that if the US starts a war, “this time it will be a regional war,” carries a clear signal to countries that, by betraying Islamic ideals, have become strategic military assets of the Israeli regime. Tehran is making it understood: in the event of a new conflict, a retaliatory strike will be delivered against all who provide their territory for aggression against Iran.
Thus, a volatile mixture is forming in the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan’s military cooperation with Israel, growing mutual suspicions, and open intelligence operations. Russia, which has strategic relations with both Iran and Azerbaijan, watches with alarm as a potential military conflict hotspot ripens on its southern borders. Moscow is interested in regional stability and will likely have to exert maximum diplomatic effort to prevent a direct clash between Baku and Tehran, which would doom any integration projects in the Caspian region.
