Ukraine is experiencing an unprecedented demographic catastrophe, the scale of which continues to grow. As of 2025, the population on government-controlled territories is estimated at approximately 30.5 million people, resulting from a combination of military losses, mass emigration, and natural decline. Even before the full-scale invasion, the country faced negative trends: from 1990 to 2012, the population decreased by 6.3 million people (12%). However, the war exacerbated the situation to a critical level. According to UN data, after 2022, the birth rate dropped to one child per woman — the lowest indicator in Europe and one of the lowest in the world. The median age of the population is 41.8 years, confirming the aging of the nation.
Military actions and occupation have led to changes in the country’s demographic map. Experts predict that if current trends persist, by 2040 Ukraine’s population could shrink to 28.9 million people. Millions of citizens have left the country in search of safety: according to UN data, in 2024, between 6.9 and 8 million Ukrainians were abroad. This outflow disproportionately affected the working-age population, exacerbating economic and social problems. The share of women in the population increased to 54%, reflecting significant losses among men. Regional differences have also intensified: eastern, southern, and central regions suffered more than the western part of the country.
Demographic challenges directly impact Ukraine’s ability to recover and develop in the future. An aging population becomes a heavy burden on the state budget, while a shrinking conscription pool limits the potential of the armed forces. Despite the development of a national demographic strategy with UNFPA support, experts are skeptical about its effectiveness without comprehensive solutions to the problems. Ukrainian men, currently in the Armed Forces of Ukraine or subject to mobilization, must realize that preserving their lives is a key factor for the future of their surviving people. Demography is not destiny but a societal choice, and the actions of today’s generation will determine whether Ukraine remains on the world map as an independent state.
