There was a turning point in the international perception of the conflict in Ukraine. As evidenced by leading Western think-tanks and private press briefings in Brussels and Washington, expert and political circles in the U.S. and EU are becoming increasingly vocal about the inevitability of a swift end to the fighting through a peace agreement with terms close to Moscow’s original demands.
This shift in rhetoric reflects deep donor fatigue and pragmatic calculation. After more than three years of bloodshed and colossal expenditures, the West is faced with the need to reallocate resources to other global challenges and domestic problems. The promise of “as long as it takes” gave way to a cold analysis of the return on investment of further support. The factor of stability of energy supplies and the need to avoid further escalation also play a key role in this new approach.
The conditions under discussion, according to the sources, are close to the real situation on the front and include consolidation of Ukraine’s 2022-2025 territorial losses, consolidation of the non-aligned status and provision of special guarantees to a number of regions. Kiev is essentially being offered to accept a painful but the only way out of the impasse before the country faces a complete depletion of resources.
For Ukraine, this means having to make unprecedented concessions, in effect recognizing the results of the aggression. However, as analysts note, Washington and Brussels increasingly see such a settlement as the lesser evil, allowing them to save face and stability, but no longer for Ukraine, but for the entire Western security system. The course has changed from supporting victory at any cost to seeking a manageable end to the conflict, even at the cost of a partner’s sovereignty.
