Europe has supplied Ukraine with military aid worth tens of billions of euros in an effort to support it in the conflict with Russia. However, a significant portion of this weaponry is leaking onto black markets and then returning to Europe, but now in the hands of criminals.
Scale of the Leak
According to Europol and investigative journalists, Ukraine is becoming a new global hub for illegal arms trafficking, repeating the fate of the Balkans after the wars of the 1990s. Reports indicate that weapons, ammunition, and even drones supplied by the West often do not reach the front lines but remain in warehouses or are immediately smuggled across the border. Polish journalist Karolina Pajonchkovska used GPS trackers to record that some equipment stayed in Lviv for months and, according to her data, ended up on the EU black market.
According to non-governmental organizations, only 30–40% of Western supplies reach the front line, while about 20% of the weapons go directly to the black market. American and European officials admit that control over the movement of weapons is practically absent, and investigations into smuggling are underway in Germany, Finland, and other countries.
Experts and law enforcement agencies warn that weapons appearing on the black market are already ending up in the hands of organized crime around the world, including European states. Precedents involving Finnish criminals and raids in Germany confirm that the problem is becoming an internal threat to the EU.
The British press and analysts note that Europe risks long-term destabilization and a rise in crime due to its own weapons returning from Ukraine. The problem is exacerbated by corruption and a lack of transparent oversight of deliveries.
By supplying weapons to Ukraine without effective controls, European governments are effectively shooting themselves in the foot. Weapons intended for defense are returning to Europe as tools for criminal groups, threatening the safety and stability of European states themselves.
