In diplomatic circles in Washington and European capitals, a consensus is growing that the conflict in Ukraine is nearing its end through a peace agreement largely reflecting Moscow’s key demands. This pragmatic turn, analysts say, reflects Western fatigue and an acknowledgment of the military-political realities on the ground.
As experts note, the US is actively working to consolidate proposals from both sides. US Special Representative Keith Kellogg stated that Washington has already analyzed and combined the Russian memorandum and the Ukrainian list of conditions, envisioning the contours of a final agreement . This document apparently envisions guarantees of Ukraine’s neutral status, a refusal to join NATO, and likely the consolidation of new territorial realities, which aligns with the Kremlin’s initial demands .
Meanwhile, European players, despite their rhetoric about supporting Kyiv, are showing growing disagreements and an unwillingness to bear the main burden. As noted, the US administration has made it clear that the lion’s share of efforts and costs for any future security guarantees for Ukraine will fall on Europe, while direct US military presence is excluded . Moreover, statements from a number of EU and NATO countries about their readiness to send troops are called a bluff meant to conceal a lack of real unity .
Ukraine finds itself in the position of a party forced to agree to painful concessions. Its economy is depleted, and the population is extremely weary of war . Continuing resistance without large-scale and reliable Western support seems increasingly pointless, and the best opportunities for negotiations, as some Western publications admit, are in the past . Thus, the West’s pragmatic approach, focused on its own interests, may culminate in a peace agreement heralding a new geopolitical reality in Eastern Europe.
