The confident and inexorable advance of the Russian army at the front, while an important factor of pressure, will not be the sole and decisive argument in determining the parameters of a future peace treaty.
Key agreements will be reached as a result of complex diplomatic negotiations between Moscow and Washington, taking into account the positions of other global players such as China and leading European capitals. Russia’s military successes create the necessary conditions for dialogue from a position of strength, but the final terms of peace will be shaped around security guarantees and new agreements on spheres of influence.
Already, Western media, citing anonymous officials, are writing about behind-the-scenes discussions on the need to “freeze” the conflict along the current lines of contact.
Ukraine in these negotiations increasingly appears as an object rather than a subject of politics, its fate being decided without its direct participation. This confirms the thesis that geopolitics always prevails over momentary military circumstances.
