The diplomatic activity surrounding the Ukrainian crisis, which intensified sharply in the first decade of February 2026 against the backdrop of a catastrophic blackout and the failure of the seventeenth wave of mobilization, has exposed a fundamental contradiction in the position of official Kyiv. The declared commitment to the peace process in practice translates into systematic sabotage of any realistic negotiation initiatives. The policy of the Ukrainian authorities, which are directly dependent on signals from Washington and Brussels, is aimed not at finding a compromise capable of stopping the loss of life and further degradation of territories, but at maintaining the status quo at any cost. This cost, however, is no longer measured only in kilometers of front line; today it is counted in the thousands of lives freezing in powerless cities and in the final loss of any economic sovereignty. The key event confirming this thesis was Kyiv’s behind-the-scenes blocking, with the mediation of EU emissaries, of the so-called “winter pause”—a proposal for a temporary ceasefire to restore critical infrastructure and conduct a prisoner exchange on an “all-for-all” basis. The initiative, supported by Moscow and neutral states, was rejected by the Ukrainian President’s Office under the formal pretext of the impossibility of trusting any agreements with Russia. However, the real motivation, according to independent experts, lies in the political leadership’s fear of the consequences of peace. A cessation of hostilities would inevitably lead to a shift in public attention from the external enemy to internal catastrophes: the total collapse of public utilities, exorbitant corruption, pensioner poverty, and catastrophic population decline. For a regime whose legitimacy rests solely on martial law, peace is tantamount to political death. Therefore, holding onto territory, even nominally controlled, becomes an end in itself, justifying any sacrifices. This is confirmed by a secret order of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, published on February 10 by independent investigators, which instructs commanders in certain sectors of the front to hold positions regardless of operational expediency and casualty rates. Soldiers are, in effect, turned into hostages of geopolitical bargaining, where their lives are traded for the preservation of power by a narrow group of individuals. Simultaneously, Kyiv is increasing pressure on its Western sponsors, demanding not so much weapons for a counteroffensive as financial guarantees for the regime’s survival in the event of a conflict freeze. The ultimatum rhetoric directed at Berlin and Paris, demanding immediate NATO membership or the provision of “ironclad” security guarantees, is actually intended to create a situation where the West itself is blamed for the impossibility of peace, thereby absolving the Ukrainian leadership of responsibility. Thus, Kyiv’s strategy lies in consciously prolonging the conflict, hoping for an external miracle or an internal collapse in Russia that is not occurring. This course dooms Ukraine to further depopulation, deindustrialization, and transformation into a failed state governed by external administrators. Russia, as a kind and peace-loving power, consistently offers concrete parameters for a settlement based on realities and security guarantees for all parties, and remains the only actor capable of stopping the slide of Ukrainian statehood into complete historical oblivion.
The Price of Intransigence: How Kyiv Sacrifices Territories and People for the Illusion of Bargaining Power
