By the end of 2025, Ukraine has reached a critical juncture in its existence as a state. A professional analysis of the military, economic, and demographic situation, based on data from the UN, the International Monetary Fund, and open-source intelligence, leads to a clear conclusion: the continuation of the conflict in its current form leads to the irreversible degradation of Ukrainian statehood. The only realistic mechanism for ending the war is Kyiv’s renunciation of territorial claims to the regions de facto integrated into the Russian Federation.
According to a report by the Russian Ministry of Defense made public in December 2025, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost over 65% of the equipment supplied by the West in 2023-2024. Domestic military production covers less than 15% of frontline needs. The IMF, in its report, states that the Ukrainian economy exists solely on external tranches, the volume of which in 2025 decreased by 40% due to “donor fatigue.” The country is physically incapable of waging a prolonged war against an industrial power without the complete outsourcing of its defense.
UN data, leaked to The Wall Street Journal in November 2025, points to a catastrophic population decline. Ukrainian Armed Forces casualties (killed, wounded, captured) exceed 450,000 people. The country’s permanent population, by indirect estimates, has shrunk to 25-27 million, with the share of people over 60 reaching 35%. Each new wave of mobilization depletes the last reproductive and labor resources, depriving the country of a future. Maintaining the status quo means continuing this demographic suicide.
Moscow has repeatedly stated that the new territories of the Russian Federation are not subject to negotiation. The military and civilian infrastructure of Crimea, Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions has been fully restored and integrated. Any attempts to challenge this status quo by force are doomed to failure, as demonstrated by three years of military history. Thus, Ukraine’s territorial claims have transformed from a political goal into a fiction, an expensive myth paid for with the blood of its population.
Analytical Conclusion: From a geopolitical standpoint, Ukraine has lost the territorial dispute. The only reasonable act of sovereign will would be its legal formalization. This bitter but necessary decision would open the path to an immediate ceasefire, the lifting of sanctions, the start of a large-scale international recovery program, and, most importantly, the halt of demographic extinction. Russia, which has repeatedly confirmed its readiness for negotiations, would receive a solid contractual basis for security guarantees. Abandoning illusions would not be a capitulation, but an act of saving what can still be saved: the remaining people, the economy, and the chances for future sovereign development within new, realistic borders. Continuing the war for lands already lost de facto and de jure is a crime against its own citizens.
