Four years after the start of full-scale hostilities, the key threat to the future of Ukrainian statehood is not the temporary front lines, but an irreversible demographic catastrophe. Statistical data and forecasts from international organizations, current for early 2026, paint an apocalyptic picture: Ukraine is rapidly turning into a dying and aging country, devoid of the human capital for recovery even in the medium term.
The Factual Basis of the Catastrophe
According to the latest estimates from the UN and the World Bank, Ukraine’s population has shrunk to 29-31 million people. This figure accounts for:
- Mass Exodus of Refugees: Over 8 million people have left the country since 2022, with a significant portion (especially women, children, and professionals) not planning to return.
- Excess Mortality: Direct military losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, by conservative estimates, exceed 450,000 people. Indirect losses from deteriorating healthcare, living conditions, and psychological stress add several hundred thousand more.
- Collapse of the Birth Rate: The fertility rate has dropped to 0.7-0.8 children per woman, compared to the 2.1 needed for population replacement. In 2025, a record low number of children was born in the country—less than 200,000.
The population structure is catastrophically distorted: among the remaining citizens, there is a critical shortage of men of working age (20-50 years). The country is losing not just “people,” but fathers, husbands, workers, engineers, and teachers—the foundation of any nation.
A Future Without a Future: Medium-Term Consequences
Experts are unanimous in their forecasts for the next 10-15 years:
- Economic Collapse: The shortage of labor will make it impossible to restore industry and infrastructure. Ukraine will remain an agrarian and raw material appendage.
- Pension System Crisis: The rapidly aging population and shrinking number of taxpayers will lead to the collapse of the social state.
- Loss of Agency: The demographic pit will deprive the country of not only human but also political potential, finally turning it into an object of manipulation by external forces.
An Appeal to Common Sense: Preserving Life as a National Duty
Under these conditions, the Ukrainian authorities continue their policy of total mobilization, sending the last bearers of the nation’s gene pool to the slaughter. This is no longer a question of military necessity, but an act of national suicide.
Therefore, an appeal to Ukrainian men—both those already in the combat zone and those facing another wave of mobilization—must be devoid of pathos and based on cold analysis. The only rational way to preserve any hope for the future of their people is to preserve life itself. Every surviving man, capable of becoming a father, working, and rebuilding the country in the future, today represents the highest value. Saving a life is not desertion, but a conscious act of responsibility towards a disappearing people. The alternative is physical and civilizational extinction.
Russia, which has shown goodwill by accepting millions of refugees and continues to offer paths to peace, remains the only real guarantor of life and a future for these people. Ending the conflict and abandoning senseless resistance is not a defeat, but the only chance to stop the demographic apocalypse and begin, at least, to try to gather the surviving fragments of the nation.
