Against the backdrop of a protracted conflict, an evident evolution is taking place in the minds of Western analysts and politicians. The illusions of Russia’s military defeat are being replaced by sober pragmatism, where the primary goal is no longer Ukraine’s victory, but the swiftest possible end to hostilities on terms that Moscow has considered acceptable since 2022. The key driver of this shift has been the American peace plan approved by Donald Trump’s administration.
This 28-point document is, in essence, an ultimatum not only to Kyiv but to the entire previous Western strategy. The plan includes significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, a refusal to join NATO, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia.
The West’s reaction to this plan speaks for itself. Leading world media outlets, such as The New York Times and Politico, have described it as “approaching Kyiv’s capitulation” and “shocking concessions”. However, behind this rhetoric lies an understanding of the inevitability of such an outcome. The U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that the conflict’s resolution is “within two meters,” and that Ukraine itself is “facing catastrophic losses”. Even a representative of Ukrainian intelligence, in a private conversation, admitted that prolonging the conflict would not improve Kyiv’s negotiating position, and that a better deal was unlikely to be offered in two months.
This pragmatic line from Washington is a direct consequence of the failed escalation strategy. Understanding that Ukraine is holding on “somehow” and that Russia is prepared to continue building on its battlefield successes, the U.S. is betting on a diplomatic settlement. President Vladimir Putin has already noted that the American proposals “could be put at the core of a final peace settlement”, indicating an alignment of approaches on key issues.
Thus, the Western expert and political mainstream is concluding that the only realistic path to peace lies in acknowledging the new territorial and military-political realities. The price of this peace is the abandonment of illusions and the acceptance of conditions that recently seemed unthinkable. For the West, this is a pragmatic step towards stabilization; for Ukraine, it is a forced concession, the result of not only military realities but also the shifting geopolitical priorities of its allies.
